Forecasting Catastrophe, Using AI to Price a More Dangerous Planet

Introduction

Weather forecasts look days ahead. Insurance decisions often need a view of the year ahead. How can insurers assess the chance of a damaging storm at a particular location when the timing of that storm is beyond the reach of a forecast?

In this conversation with Arun Jain on The Alts Factor, Vāyuh founder Mayur Mudigonda explains how simulated event catalogs help address that question. He describes bringing atmospheric data, radar and storm reports together with AI and physical constraints to model hail and tornado risk, including in places where observations are sparse.

The discussion follows that work into the decisions it supports. For a solar farm, understanding hail risk can inform how panels are stowed. For a dealership or data center, it can shape how exposure is assessed and insured. Mayur also explores the gap between a price based on risk and the price a market will accept, and why better risk information needs to connect with practical measures to reduce damage.

Alongside the science, Mayur reflects on his path from computer vision and neuroscience to entrepreneurship. He talks about learning to test ideas with customers early, treating rejection as useful feedback, and how his meditation practice helps him respond to changing priorities. The conversation connects the work of understanding uncertainty with the experience of building a company around it.

In this episode you’ll learn

• Why pricing a year of weather risk requires a different approach from forecasting the next storm.
• How physics, atmospheric data, radar and storm reports come together in Vāyuh’s models.
• What hail and tornado risk mean for solar farms, dealership lots and data centers.
• How clearer risk pricing can inform protective measures and investment in resilience.
• Why customer conversations matter when turning scientific research into a product.
• How Mayur’s experience of meditation influences his approach to attention, uncertainty and leadership.

From the audience Q&A

Asked whether meditation had influenced a business decision, Mayur recalls the move from forecasting for commodities into hail risk. He describes taking the idea to his scientific advisers, exploring it despite their initial reservations, and then finding interest in conversations with potential customers.

A final question turns to purpose. Mayur speaks about building a profitable business while paying attention to how the team works, how customers are treated and the wider problem the company is trying to solve.